Canada's 50% lands Saturday, black mass Thursday; the tape bids cells anyway

1. 1. Carried at the 14 August verification and not re-retrieved in this pass, so treat every count below as a dated level rather than a current one. Lloyd's List Intelligence's Hormuz brief of 12 August shows 78 transits in 3-9 August against 95 the week before, with non-Iranian-linked traffic at 45 against 63; the 5 August brief this board once carried as 84 transits and 52 non-Iranian-linked was restated upward to 95 and 63. CNN's 13 August file puts traffic well below the pre-war 130-140 a day while warning that ship-to-ship transfer means real volumes may exceed the count
2. 2. The corridor is being enforced with weapons rather than paperwork. The 5 August brief records two ships struck since 1 August while transiting via the Omani route plus at least one further attempt; CNBC on 12 August reports hopes of a Hormuz deal dimming, and Lloyd's List Intelligence has Iran's top security official insisting reopening stays conditional. United Against Nuclear Iran's 13 August shipping update dates the collapse of the 17 June Memorandum of Understanding and the reinstatement of a US blockade, with tankers observed broadcasting CHINESE OWNER
3. 3. Daily granularity is brutal: Windward's 13 August file logs 3 transits in the 24 hours to 12 August, two inbound and one outbound, all transmitting AIS and all through the south corridor, down from a 14-transit peak on 11 August. Lloyd's List Intelligence also reports underwriters warning that another six months of this would put hundreds of vessels into claims
4. 4. Carried and not re-priced: do not conflate the two 20% numbers - a proposed 20% toll on transiting cargo against Iran's proposed fine of up to 20% of cargo value for breaching its conditions - and remember the IMO and eight shipping associations opposed compulsory transit charges, while charging for pilotage and navigational services is legally easier. War-risk cover at 3-10% of hull value against 0.25% pre-war is also carried
5. 5. US and European conversion absorbs the whole move because most tolling and offtake agreements carry no energy or freight pass-through, and a permissioned corridor adds documentation: named vessel before loading, ownership and flag screening against corridor exclusions as well as OFAC and EU designations, and AIS continuity for the laden leg. The EU battery passport on 18 February 2027, UFLPA admissibility against a 187-entity list after the 43 additions effective 3 August, and your own FEOC certifications all rest on a custody record a dark leg cannot supply retroactively

What it means: Ask forwarders and carriers in writing whether the vessels nominated for your Gulf legs are exposed to the US- and Israel-linked exclusions Iran has described, and treat that as a booking criterion rather than a political question. Do not release war-risk or deviation cover on reopening headlines: ships using the Omani route have been struck since 1 August and Tehran has restated that reopening is conditional. Put who-pays-the-fee, named-vessel disclosure and an AIS-continuity representation into freight and forwarder contracts this month, and hold one dated energy and freight series for the year rather than chasing the daily print.

1. 1. Carried at the 14 August verification and not re-retrieved in this pass. Lloyd's List Intelligence's Red Sea brief of 13 August counts 200 AIS-enabled transits through Bab el-Mandeb in 3-9 August, down from 226 the week before and the lowest weekly traceable figure in a year, and says explicitly that more data is needed to know whether traffic is genuinely lower or more ships have gone dark. The same brief also carries at least 273 passings for 27 July to 2 August against 269 the week prior - a different count from the 226 traceable figure for the following week
2. 2. The risk changed character on 11 August: CNBC reports a Houthi attack that killed six people aboard a cargo ship in Bab el-Mandeb, the first fatalities from Red Sea shipping attacks in more than a year, the day after a vessel was sunk at the port of Mokha
3. 3. Segment detail contradicts a comfortable average. United Against Nuclear Iran's 13 August update, citing the Joint Maritime Information Center, puts tanker transits through Bab el-Mandeb down roughly 40% since the Houthis declared the blockade of Saudi Arabia, against the all-segment 24% fall from the 6 August brief; The Hill reports Kpler recording traffic at its lowest in months after the strikes on Saudi oil depots
4. 4. Carried and not re-priced: the Joint War Committee's widened Red Sea listed area of roughly 800 km, which pulls voyages previously outside the breach notification zone into additional premium and 24-hour notice, and the Houthi coordination centre's insistence that safe-transit assurance is voluntary and free
5. 5. These lanes carry the one component with no domestic substitute at volume: US separator capacity of 300-500 million m2 a year covers roughly 15-25% of domestic demand, so three-quarters or more is imported from Japan, South Korea and China on a landed cost that already includes the 10-12.5% Section 301 forced-labour layer collected since 24 July, and that can pick up USTR shipbuilding fees again from 10 November

What it means: Keep Cape routing as the base case for separator, electrolyte and precursor and get the added transit written into supplier lead-time commitments rather than absorbed in your ramp plan. Ask carriers and forwarders to report re-routes, turnarounds and dark legs rather than incidents, and re-check war-risk pass-through against the widened Joint War Committee area before the next quarterly freight true-up. Hold your deepest inventory cover on separator, where import dependence is highest and there is no domestic swing capacity, and expect crewing consent, not tonnage, to be the constraint that moves your arrival dates this month.

1. 1. Checked at source on 14 August across Mondaq, HSF Kramer, CIRS and Crux Investor, with no extension, successor or replacement retrievable, and carried unchanged today: MOFCOM and Customs Decision 70 of 7 November 2025 suspends Announcements 55, 56, 57, 58, 61 and 62 - lithium-ion cells and packs, cathode material, artificial graphite anode material and the related production equipment and technology - only until 10 November 2026, which is 86 days from today. Relief is delivered through general licences to US end users and their global suppliers, not by repeal
2. 2. Three other clocks land in the same fortnight: USTR's exclusions on 178 Chinese products lapse for entries filed after 9 November - file by the 9th, because the release says 10 November while the final notice reads to 11:59 p.m. on the 9th - the BIS Affiliates Rule suspension ends 9 November so the 50%-ownership provisions return to the EAR on 10 November absent further rulemaking, and the separate Announcement 72 suspension of the US-specific graphite re-export measure runs to 27 November
3. 3. The legal architecture widened while enforcement sat suspended: the 1 January 2026 licensing catalogue added rare-earth compounds including samarium, gadolinium and lutetium plus silver, State Council Order No. 834 of 31 March created China's first dedicated industrial and supply-chain security framework, and MOFCOM Announcement No. 26 of 2026 opened a public reporting mechanism for strategic-mineral export-control violations
4. 4. Anode graphite, cathode material and cell-line equipment revert to case-by-case Chinese licensing for anyone who has not landed and commissioned, and using the window is dearer than the Q2 plan assumed: Chinese-origin goods picked up an additional 12.5% Section 301 forced-labour duty on 24 July, a 2% Chinese consumption tax lands on 1 September - sixteen days out - and tonnes invoiced from January 2027 also lose the 6% export VAT rebate

What it means: This is still the largest dated risk on the board and it is a cluster, not one item. Anything you need from a Chinese equipment vendor should be shipped, cleared, installed and commissioned before early November rather than merely ordered, and the pull-forward now carries an extra 12.5% duty plus a 2% consumption tax from 1 September, so re-run the carrying-cost case before you add orders. Ask Chinese suppliers in writing what their licence path looks like after 10 November and whether they are shipping under a general licence, and have compliance re-screen every Chinese counterparty's ownership tree for the Affiliates Rule snapback on the same date.