Freshest carbonate read
152,500CNY/t
TE's China spot for 27 Aug, -0.16% on the day and +4.81% on the month, still the newest confirmed print at month-end.
The two China tapes have converged
76CNY/t
MetalCharts' GFEX proxy 152,576 against TE 152,500, both for 27 Aug. On Tuesday the two pages were 4,322 apart.
Retire 157,000 and 160,500
152,500CNY/t
160,500 at +94.56% is 24 August and still the event headline; 157,000 the 25th. The newest tape reads 152,500 at +90.64%.
CarbonCredits is a session behind
22.72USD/kg
22.72/kg and 152,750 for 26 Aug, -4.84%, blamed on restart-driven glut talk rather than the tax bid.
Pull-forward peaked before the tax
24 Aug
The high printed a week before the 1 September levy, and the tape has been soft in every confirmed session since.
Curve broke first, then spot
149,300CNY/t
LC2609 spiked 157,980 on 25 Aug and closed 149,300; spot has come down to 152,500 to meet it.
China spot, the sequence
139–160.5k CNY/t
SMM 139,000 4 Aug, 148,000 12 Aug, 153,950 17 Aug, 160,500 24 Aug, 157,000 25th, 152,750 26th, 152,500 27th.
Still up off the August low
+13,500CNY/t
SMM's own 4 August print was 139,000, -16.27% m/m. The tape is about 10% above it even after four down sessions.
SMM index has not reprinted
20,615USD/t
No fresher SMM level was retrieved on this pass, so the 25 Aug 20,615 is still the newest confirmed number at month-end.
Hydroxide, up then further down
18,959.6USD/t
Index 18,509.16 on 21 Aug, +310.35, then -490.8 to 18,959.6 on the 25th against carbonate 20,615. A 1,655/t discount.
Benchmark's page is still 12 Aug
18,310USD/t
Carbonate cif Asia 18,310, hydroxide 18,510, SC6 2,038 fob Australia, unmoved on this pass. Its 10 Aug mid was 18,160.
Seaborne assessment lag
~3weeks
BMI's newest cif Asia set is 12 August against a China tape that has since run and turned. Date every quote you send.
Assessor gap on the same metal
2,305USD/t
SMM's 25 Aug index 20,615 against BMI's 12 Aug cif Asia 18,310. Basis and date, not a view on the metal.
BMI's own pair inverts
+200USD/t
On BMI's 12 Aug set hydroxide 18,510 sits 200/t over carbonate 18,310. The SMM pair reads the other way round.
SMM expects the inversion to hold
premium
Carbonate's premium over hydroxide should persist on LFP, over half of EV installs and 90%+ of storage.
SMM's 2026 carbonate average
20,100USD/t
20,100/t carbonate and 19,600 hydroxide for 2026, with H2 softening still expected.
Spot is back at the forecast
20,615USD/t
SMM's own 25 Aug index sits 515/t over its 2026 average call. The overshoot has nearly closed.
SMM cuts the demand growth rate
5.8%
Demand growth of 5.8% in 2026 against 18.5% in 2025. The price ran on restocking, not on demand.
Forecast spread for 2026
3,100USD/t
SMM 20,100 against BMI's April 17,000 for the same year and metal. Pick one and say whose it is in the deck.
Against the 2025 average
~2.2x
Metal Tech News puts 2025 carbonate near 9,000/t. A 2025-based cost sheet is out by double.
IMARC's four July regions
21.76USD/kg
NE Asia 21.76 (+1.8%), Europe 13.36, North America 10.6, South America 8.71. July is still the newest month.
A US monthly, on import parity
27,191USD/t
Procurement Resource has the US mean at 27,191/t in May from 24,022 in April, 2.6x IMARC's July North America line.
A European monthly, in euros
23.74EUR/kg
Germany's May mean at Procurement Resource, roughly double IMARC's July Europe line. Two assessors, one continent.
An Indian monthly, in rupees
2,584INR/kg
India averaged INR 2,584.08/kg in May from 2,283.71 in April, +13.2%, on constrained feedstock.
May peak, two reads
182.5/199k CNY/t
This board carries 182,500 for May; Blooming says nearly 199,000 and calls the fall since more than 26%.
US hydroxide, three assessors
12.4–21.5
IMARC's USA 12,443/t, ChemAnalyst's undated 18,376, EMR's May 19-21.5/kg DDP. Do not blend them in one model.
Rally off the 2025 trough
+130%
The 17 Aug SMM level was 130% above the June 2025 low of 58,400 CNY/t, and the tape has since eased four sessions.
SMM sees H2 easing
H2
Prices ease in H2 as smelter maintenance ends, with the year's peak seen late Q3 or early Q4.
SunSirs H2 price range
150–200k CNY/t
The projected H2 range on storage and EV demand. Both China tapes now sit at or just above the bottom of it.
Rallies are not linear
-5.5%
LC2609 traded 157,980 and closed 149,300 in one session on 25 August. The same pattern ran on 17 August.
July futures fall
-20%
Futures fell nearly 20% in July on surplus expectations, before the August rebound reversed it.
August inventory draw
~22kt
August is projected to draw about 22,000 t as schedules rebound while Chilean imports stay low.
Chile's July carbonate exports
23.4kt
Chile exported 23,400 t of carbonate in July, +8.31% m/m, 15,051 t of it to China. Feed is arriving.
GFEX low, 22 July
136,800CNY/t
The July trough, lowest since 10 February, within 800 CNY/t of the August futures low.
BMI 10-day VaR, 10kt position
13.7$m
13.7m carbonate, 14.3m hydroxide at 99% over ten days on July data. Size the hedge to the product.
BMI VaR peaks down the curve
17.8$m
Carbonate VaR 1,781/t at three months and holding to twelve, hydroxide 1,695/t at six. Tenor is the risk.
BMI annualised volatility
48–54%
Carbonate 48.4%, hydroxide 53.0%, spodumene 54.1%. Feed is the most volatile and has barely moved.
Delivered US vs IMARC region
1.7x
ChemAnalyst Q2 18,351/t DDP US Gulf against IMARC's 10.6/kg July line; the same page also shows 10,345 and 9,003.
China March average, two reads
156–157k CNY/t
CPCIA has March at 157,400 from 148,800 in February; cbonds averages 156,205. Means, not prints.
CJK re-spec landed 1 Sept
1 Sept
Fastmarkets re-specced MB-LI-0029 and MB-LI-0033 on schedule; check September nominations against the new spec.
Pages stamped for old months
9,720USD/t
Intratec still names November 2025 for Europe at 9,720/t; metal.com's index rows are stamped 23 January.
Carbonate off the Q1 peak
-22%
INN's Q1 battery grade 26,278/t against SMM's 20,615 on 25 Aug. Do not budget off a Q1 print.
Spodumene has not followed
~10x
SMM's 20,615/t carbonate against BMI's SC6 2,038 fob Australia for 12 Aug. Feed lags in both directions.
Feed turned down too
2,250USD/t
The daily feed has SC6 at 2,250 cif China on 25 Aug, -1.96%, still above Argus's 11 Aug top of 2,120.
Feed has outrun the salt YTD
+45.4%
On that feed SC6 is +45.35% year to date against carbonate at +37.82%. The 17 Aug pair is retired.
Argus spodumene, both grades
2,020–2,120USD/t
6% flat on 11 Aug as Zimbabwean supply offset firmer salts; 5-5.5% at 1,820-1,970, about 190/t under it.
Zimbabwe ore export ban
~12kt LCE/mo
The 25 February ban on raw ore and concentrate exports affects about 12,000 t LCE a month of feed.
Africa's 2026 increment
~140kt LCE
Africa adds about 140kt LCE in 2026 to roughly 380kt, the largest increment after China.
SMM prints two supply numbers
13.2 vs 30%
Its flash has 2026 output +13.2% y/y; its Zimbabwe analysis has supply +~30% to over 2.1m t LCE. Same week.
SQM's 2026 demand call
2.1m t
SQM sees demand above 2.1m t in 2026 and its Codelco venture lifting output over 70%.
SQM's own realisation
21.80USD/kg
The Novandino venture realised about 21.80/kg in Q2, +23% q/q - above Albemarle's 19.53.
2026 balance, three views
+109/-80kt
S&P Global a 109kt surplus, UBS and Morgan Stanley deficits up to 80kt. Opposite signs on the same year.
Storage share of lithium demand
~31%
Storage lithium use forecast +55% in 2026 to about 31% of demand. The line under LFP.
Lithium metal, two reads
+2%
Metal added over 2% on 21 Aug on Asian Metal indices, against IMARC's July 19.90/kg. Date the quote.
Albemarle Q2, the detail
3.75USD EPS
Adjusted EPS 3.75 on 1.7bn of sales against 3.20 on 1.6bn expected; realised near 20/kg, 19.53 in the detail.
Lithium consumption to May
+45%
On Albemarle's call, global lithium consumption grew 45% y/y through May, led by storage.
Cobalt hydroxide index, cif Asia
17–22USD/lb
BMI dates the fall to 19 Aug and calls it a wide, largely untested bid-offer spread, not a collapse in value.
Cobalt Q2 closed flat
flatq/q
BMI's Q2 review has the cif Asia hydroxide index closing the quarter virtually flat, spot liquidity minimal.
Cobalt, two bases apart
~24.4USD/lb
TE's 53,824/t for 24 July, -3.76% m/m and +77% y/y, works out above BMI's untested index.
Cobalt assessors disagree
57,000USD/t
Intratec carries an August update stamp but its newest named level is still January's 57,000/t, +8% m/m.
Cobalt regional split, Q1
33,095USD/t
IMARC: USA 33,095/t, China 33,022, Netherlands 36,605, UK 36,269, India 35,524. Still a Q1 level.
Cobalt metal line is 3 July
26.25USD/lb
No fresher Rotterdam level has surfaced, so the CME mid is nearly two months old and the payable still runs off it.
DRC cobalt shipped 2025
44%
44,333 t exported of about 100,015 t produced. Allocation and paperwork set 2027 precursor cost.
US flake, last public print
770–820USD/t
Fastmarkets' 4 June cif US row, steady from 7 May and +20/t on April. Next dated window 3 September.
US vs China graphite, Q2
1.6x
IMARC: US graphite 852/t against China 542/t, Germany 803, Brazil 1,946. Unshaped, not anode grade.
Graphite assessors disagree
852 vs 815USD/t
IMARC's Q2 US 852 and China 542 against ChemAnalyst's June China 815. The assessor gap beats the country gap.
Spherical graphite m/m
-13%
The 4 Aug SMM row at 1,600.48 against 1,843.72 in July. The one anode input falling while lithium rose.
Spherical graphite, a second row
1,341.35USD/t
metal.com's 99.95% 15-20 micron row, ex-VAT, unchanged and undated, against 1,515.73 tax-paid.
Spherical fob China re-timed
20 Aug
The MB-GRA-0036 publication-time change slipped and took effect 20 August, not the 13th first proposed.
CJK hydroxide differential published
28 Aug
Fastmarkets published the one-time MB-LI-0033 differential on 28 Aug ahead of the 1 September re-spec.
Chinese anode rows print daily
19 Aug
BAIINFO's carbonate, hydroxide, metal and LFP rows ran to 19 August on this check. US flake has not printed since 4 June.
LFP cell print window has passed
0.35–0.40CNY/Wh
The 26 Jun 314Ah exw China row is still the only public print found; the 28 August window and the 1 Sept levy have now both passed it.
A cell price you can actually see
0.423CNY/Wh
CATL's direct store lists ESS LFP cells from 423 CNY/kWh, 63 USD/kWh, against an April industry average near 370.
InfoLink 314Ah mid
0.365CNY/Wh
314Ah averaged 0.365 on 20 April in a 0.335-0.395 range, +22% in six months from 0.300.
LFP cell prints are pre-tax
0.35–0.40CNY/Wh
Every public cell reference predates a 10% monthly carbonate swing and the 1 Sept levy. Both hit the 25 Sept row.
Freshest nickel read
16,970USD/t
Investing.com's real-time row against a 16,994.63 previous close. TE still shows 16,942.63 for the 26th on this pass.
Nickel series spread
~160USD/t
Investing 16,970.13, TE 16,942.63 and Kitco 16,809.98. The panel's 337/t gap was 21-22 August.
Newest exchange nickel row
16,878USD/t
The LME's own day-delayed 3M close is 16,878, down from the 17,026 this board carried for 24 August.
Nickel July average
16,651USD/t
FocusEconomics has July at 16,651, -5.3% on June, so the 26 Aug print sits about 290/t above it.
Nickel 31 July close
17,100USD/t
Tacto's Westmetall cash row for 31 July sits above every August print on this board.
Nickel 30 June and 30 April
16,275USD/t
Cash 16,275 at 30 June, 19,325 at 30 April, July 2025 average 15,023. April to now is a fall.
Nickel 52-week range
14.2–20.0k USD/t
Investing.com: 14,197.88-19,977.25 around a 16,929.63-17,033.00 session. The tape is mid-range, not cheap.
LME nickel stocks
266kt
266,172 t at 31 July, down about 8,000 t since 20 July - the first real drawdown in months.
INSG 2026 nickel balance
-32kt
The INSG still has a 32kt deficit for 2026, the first since 2021, against a tape going sideways.
Indonesia ore quota, per TE
260–270m wmt
Extra quota to be granted selectively to smelters short of feed, which keeps the nickel tape capped.
Weda Bay still part-idled
part
PT Weda Bay is still partly in care and maintenance, with limited extra ore for short smelters.
China's refining share, IEA 2026
74%
The Global Critical Minerals Outlook has China refining 74% of lithium, 76% of cobalt and 94% of battery-grade graphite.
Nickel is the refining exception
31%
China refines 31% of nickel on the same IEA set - but the Indonesian capacity that dominates is Chinese-invested.
Top-three refining concentration
86%
The top-three share across copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite and REE hit 86% in 2024, from 82% in 2020.
Separator share worse than 74%
91.5%
SNE has Chinese firms at 91.5% of the global EV separator market in Q2 2026, against the 74% output line from 2022.
Separator installs H1'26
9,773m sq m
Global separator installs grew 24.1% y/y in H1; electrolyte 768kt, +22.5%, with ex-China electrolyte up 36.2%.
US production growth
+140%
CSIS puts total US battery production up nearly 140% between 2020 and 2025.
Component facilities
180+
More than 180 battery component facilities have opened across 38 states, on the CSIS count.
Midstream vs downstream
gap
Growth was strongest in downstream cell and pack; midstream cathode, anode, foil and separator capacity still lags.
Midstream cancelled
450kt/yr
Cathode plus anode capacity cancelled between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025. Unrevised since.
US Li-ion import value
10x
Chinese battery imports to the US are more than ten times pre-pandemic value.
China share of US cell imports
~70%
Nearly 70% of finished non-lead-acid battery imports and about 30% of parts in 2024.
US share of battery production
~7%
The US is roughly 7% of global battery production and imports most of its inputs.
US and EU cell capacity
~5%
CSIS puts the US and EU at about 5% each against 75-85% of global cell capacity in China.
China CAM and AAM capacity
85–90%
CSIS has China at 85-90% of global cathode and anode active material capacity; the IEA reads AAM higher still.
China anode share
85–97%
EIA has China at 85% of 2022 anode output; the IEA puts installed AAM capacity above 97%. Output and capacity differ.
China cathode output share
70%
EIA: 70% of cathode output in 2022 against CSIS's 85-90% of CAM capacity. Two different measures.
China pack and component exports
74%
EIA: China was 74% of world battery pack and component exports in 2023. A trade line, not a capacity line.
Japan separator share
31%
Japan makes 31% of separators, 14% of cathodes and 11% of anodes - a non-China option exists, at Japanese cost.
China LFP output share
98%
98.9% of global LFP cell supply in 2025 on Benchmark's count, 98% of output on CSIS's. FEOC papers pick suppliers.
China graphite mine share
79%
EIA on USGS data: China was 79% of 2024 natural graphite mine output, and the US mined none.
Li processing share
<1%
Under 1% of lithium refining is US and under 3% for nickel; the IEA now puts China at 74% of refined lithium.
Cell capacity if projects land
-15%
If all pre-2025 announced projects land by 2030, China's cell-capacity share falls over 15 points.
LFP pipeline
200–281GWh
About 200 GWh US to 2030 on CSIS's count; 281 GWh North America, 108 GWh of it announced since Jan 2025.
LFP share of storage installs
>90%
LFP was over 90% of 2025 global stationary storage installations on the IEA read.
China pack cost gap
-30 to -44%
CSIS over 40%, IEA about 30%, BNEF a 44% premium. Two points of Chinese consumption tax will not close it.
Chinese AAM duty
25%
Section 301 on Chinese natural graphite is 25%, plus MFN and the 12.5% July layer. No 160% wall.
China share of battery capex
71%
China takes a projected 71% of global battery capex in 2025-26 - the mirror of the $5B US quarter.
Clean mfg investment Q2'26
$8B
Manufacturing investment $8B, +4% q/q, breaking a six-quarter run of consecutive declines.
Mfg vs Q2'25
-24%
The quarter that broke the streak still ran 24% below Q2 2025. Plan to the level, not the turn.
Battery capex Q2'26
$5B
CIM's Q2 page confirms the $8B manufacturing total and the $0.5B minerals line.
Battery announcements Q2'26
$0.5B
$500M of the $10B announced was battery, so the pipeline behind $5B of spend is thin.
Residential storage Q2'26
$12B
Residential storage installs hit $12B, double Q1 - the demand line under LFP cells.
Investment off peak
-38%
Consistent with battery capex of $5B for a third quarter.
2030 EV sales vs pre-OBBBA
-44%
2030 US EV sales as much as 44%, about 14 million units, below pre-OBBBA forecasts.
China installs July
74.6GWh
CABIA: +33.5% y/y, the fastest pace this year, but -2.5% m/m, ending four months of growth.
China LFP install share July
84.6%
A record LFP share of the 74.6 GWh installed; ternary fell to an all-time low 14.9%.
CATL share of China July
42.33%
-0.37pt on June, with installations down about 3.7% on a shrinking ternary base; BYD 19.23%, +0.74pt.
China battery exports July
35.2GWh
Power plus storage exports +51.7% y/y in July, growing faster than domestic installs.
China installs 2026F
889GWh
888.7 GWh, +15.8%, against 40.4% growth in 2025 - the deceleration is the point.
Global EV battery H1'26
608.5GWh
SNE: H1 usage 608.5 GWh, +20.0%, with CATL at 242.7 GWh, +25.3% and 39.9% share.
Chinese top-7 global share
72.4%
72.4% of H1 usage, with seven Chinese makers in the top ten.
Global ESS shipments H1'26
461GWh
H1 cell and system shipments nearly doubled y/y to 461.3 GWh, CATL 125.0 GWh at 27.1%.
CATL share of NA ESS H1'26
38.8%
North American ESS shipments 75.9 GWh, up 83% y/y, with one supplier at 39% of the cells.
